Capital Update – For the Week Ending Feb. 7, 2025

Trump Pauses Tariffs on Canada, Mexico; Duty on China Stays | 2024 U.S. Pork Exports Top 2023’s Record Amounts | Industry Finalizes H5N1 Response Plan | Ag Secretary Nominee Rollins Unanimously Voted Out of Committee | Trump’s Pick to Head USTR Has Confirmation Hearing | NPPC’s Stevermer to Testify before Senate Agriculture Committee

Trump Pauses Tariffs on Canada, Mexico; Duty on China Stays

What happened: U.S. tariffs of 25% on goods from Canada and Mexico were postponed by 30 days when Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau and Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum agreed to take action on the immigration and drug crises. A 10% duty on goods from China went into effect.

President Trump imposed the tariffs, citing illegal immigration and fentanyl impacts in the United States, as well as ongoing trade deficits with all three nations – $80 billion with Canada, $382 billion with China, and nearly $131 billion with Mexico as of 2022.

A discussion between Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping was canceled after China retaliated against the United States with tariffs of 15% on coal and liquefied natural gas and 10% on crude oil, agricultural equipment, and some U.S. auto imports.

Why it matters: U.S. pork producers depend on international trade, with U.S. pork products sold in over 100 different countries. Mexico, Canada, and China are key trading partners and top destinations for U.S. pork. Longstanding business relationships have been fostered by trade agreements – and provide outlets and markets for varieties of products.

NPPC’s take: NPPC would vigorously oppose retaliatory tariffs and actively engages policymakers to ensure they fully understand the importance of exports and international trading relationships – and the impacts of government decisions on U.S. farm families, employees, customers, business partners, and communities. NPPC is monitoring the effects on U.S. pork producers of China’s tariffs and encourage all parties to swiftly resolve the issues.

2024 U.S. Pork Exports Top 2023’s Record Amounts

What happened: U.S. pork exports set new value and volume records in 2024, according to data released by the U.S. Departments of Agriculture and Commerce and compiled by the U.S. Meat Export Federation. The U.S. pork industry shipped more than $8.6 billion of product to foreign destinations last year, 6% more than 2023’s record amount of nearly $8.2 billion. Last year’s volume was more than 3 million metric tons (MT), an increase of 120,000 MT and a rise of 4% over 2023.

Mexico was the No. 1 volume and value market for U.S. pork producers in 2024, taking 1.15 million MT of pork valued at almost $2.6 billion. That was a 10% increase over 2023. Other countries in the top five U.S. markets were, in value order:

• Japan, which imported more than 336,000 MT valued at nearly $1.4 billion;
• China, more than 475,000 MT valued at over $1.1 billion;
• Canada, more than 212,000 MT valued at about $853 million; and
• South Korea, which took more than 214,000 MT valued at more than $728 million, a 15% increase.

Canada, China, and Japan saw decreases in value and volume in 2024 compared with 2023.

Countries or regions that had significant value increases in U.S. pork imports last year over 2023, albeit from smaller baselines, were Central America, which jumped up 29%, including a 71% increase for Panama; Colombia at 32%; and Malaysia at 51%. NPPC has been working to expand market access into those nations.

What it means for producers: Markets outside the U.S. provide meaningful outlets for a range of pork products that have differing levels of demand and consumption. U.S. pork exports in 2024 equated to an average of more than $66 in value from each hog marketed, up about 4% from 2023, and accounted for more than 25% of total production. Pork exports support more than 140,000 U.S. jobs.

Industry Finalizes H5N1 Response Plan

What happened: NPPC led an effort, along with other industry representatives and state animal health officials, to create a guidance response plan for the H5N1 influenza virus, should the swine industry see an incursion. The plan was written so state and federal officials have a consistent set of response measures with industry input.

The highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) virus has affected almost 153.7 million poultry and nearly 1,000 dairy herds. There have been 67 confirmed cases of human illness – among poultry and dairy workers – caused by the virus. Two pigs in a backyard farming operation in Oregon, which also included poultry, were confirmed positive for H5N1 in early November, following exposure to a strain of the virus that originated from wild fowl.

Previously, strains of the H5 virus infected poultry in 2015, resulting in the loss of more than 50 million birds, and in early 2022, with more than 60 million birds either dying or being culled as of early 2024. In late January, the U.S. Department of Agriculture confirmed a new strain of the virus in dairy cattle. The strain was a predominant genotype found in migratory birds in the North American flyways this past fall and winter.

NPPC’s take: Swine are susceptible to influenza viruses, including H5N1. NPPC is urging pork producers to tighten and adhere to biosecurity protocols of their operations, including rodent and bird control, employ lines of separation and personal protective equipment for workers, and control visitors’ access to barns.

“We’re focused on a lot of different aspects of a response, from surveillance and biosecurity, to movement restrictions and worker safety,” said NPPC Director of Animal Health, Dr. Anna Forseth. “Stay aware [of the evolving situation], and have a good open line of communication with your veterinarian.”

Ag Secretary Nominee Rollins Unanimously Voted Out of Committee

What happened: Brooke Rollins, President Trump’s pick to lead the U.S. Department of Agriculture, was favorably reported by the U.S. Senate Committee on Agriculture, Nutrition, and Forestry, with unanimous support. Rollins now awaits a confirmation vote before the full U.S. Senate.

During her confirmation hearing, Rollins said of California’s Proposition 12 “…is not just affecting California. It’s affecting multitudes of other states, multitudes of other parts of the ag community, including our hog family farms.”

Rollins committed to working with Congress on implementing a Prop. 12 fix.

Why it matters: The Agriculture secretary oversees USDA’s various agricultural programs, including ones related to conservation, forestry, and nutrition policy, foreign animal disease preparation and prevention, and export promotion. The secretary in the upcoming Trump administration will help shape the new five-year Farm Bill.

NPPC’s take: NPPC strongly supported Rollins’ nomination as secretary of Agriculture and vowed to work with the new USDA leader on pork industry priorities, including the 2025 Dietary Guidelines for Americans, a new Farm Bill, U.S. pork export promotion, federal pork purchases, foreign animal disease prevention, preparation, and response, and, most importantly, addressing necessary changes as a result of Prop. 12.

Trump’s Pick to Head USTR Has Confirmation Hearing

What happened: Jamieson Greer, President Trump’s nominee to be the U.S. Trade Representative, had his confirmation hearing before the Senate Finance Committee. Greer noted, “American agricultural producers are the most competitive in the world, and they need to have markets commensurate with that competitiveness.”

Greer was chief of staff to Robert Lighthizer, the Trade Representative in the first Trump administration. He was involved in trade talks with China and the renegotiation of the North American Free Trade Agreement, which resulted in the U.S.-Mexico-Canada Agreement.

A California native, Greer attended Brigham Young University, majoring in international relations, and received his law degree from the University of Virginia School of Law. Currently, he is an attorney with the international law firm of King and Spalding.

NPPC’s take: NPPC supports Greer’s nomination to be ambassador in the Office of the U.S. Trade Representative and is urging the Senate to quickly confirm him.

NPPC’s Stevermer to Testify before Senate Agriculture Committee

NPPC President Lori Stevermer, a pork producer from Easton, Minn., will testify this Thursday on the state of the U.S. pork industry before the U.S. Senate Committee on Agriculture, Nutrition & Forestry. Click here to watch.